Without positive expectations for 2009: Mexico must already think of structural reforms? Buenos Aires, Argentina on March 6, 2008 there is pessimism in Mexico about the effectiveness of the economic stimulus plan to counter the strong negative impact of the crisis. Even government officials, among which stands out the Secretary of the Treasury, Agustin Carstens, not shown optimistic about the results of such a plan. It is that the crisis is too big or Mexico has structural problems that prevent properly cushion the effects of the crisis? Probably both arguments are valid. The structural problems that observes the Mexican economy have affected its growth potential, which is most evident in this context of crisis. Regardless of the true causes, the Mexican economy continues to deteriorate strongly. The recession in the United States has made collapsing demand for manufactured goods in Mexico, it significantly impacted on remittances that the country receives and has caused the return of large numbers of Mexicans who return to the country to occupy one place among the unemployed. Already the zero growth scenario should be considered as a positive scenario. In this sense, Banxico expects for this year a contraction of the economy of between 0.8% and 1.8%.
The Mexican Government projected that it will shrink by 1%. The labour market is suffering and the perspectives indicate that the suffering will be even higher in the coming months. In January, the unemployment rate reached 5% of the economically active population (PEA), its highest level in 12 years. Last Wednesday, the President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon, announced more measures anti-crisis amounting to around US $6,600 million, that will be instrumented through the Institute of security and social services of the workers of the State and it shall consist of direct and indirect investments. They will reach these additional measures? Not, of course, that does not.